Bowen tries to defend dodgy assumptions

“Labor has said it would remove negative gearing for people who purchase existing properties from 1 January 2020 and halve the capital gains tax discount for properties bought after 1 January 2020.

Measures [he] expected to raise $2.9bn over four years or $35.1bn over 10 years. Bowen claimed in February that the Grattan Institute had stated that ‘around 90% of investment lending is for existing housing’, implying that 10% is for new housing – a figure he has stated publicly for three years.

Bowen ‘revealed’ the PBO had originally calculated that 12% of negatively geared dwellings would be new properties, which they had now updated to 22% in the first year, rising over time.

‘The PBO stands by their costings and I stand by the PBO’.


Which costings does he stand by, the original ones or the black hole ones?

Based on the ORIGINAL costings, a

report from SQM Research, investment advisers specialising in property investment, says property prices will fall nationally between 5-12% by 2022 if Labor scraps negative gearing for existing properties and halves the CGT discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent

Source:, March 22

What will the effect be on property investment (and therefore rentals) if 22% of negatively geared properties would be new dwellings instead of just 12%?

Bowen said Labor would provide full costings of its revenue measures ‘in good time during the election campaign’.

Breaking News! The election campaign has already started! Actually, it started 6 months ago.


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